Date released: Apr 13 2017
Greenhouse gas emissions projected to increase strongly as economic growth takes hold
Environmental Protection Agency projections released today show that Ireland will not meet its 2020 EU greenhouse gas emission reduction targets with the current range of policy measures. The latest figures demonstrate the need for new and innovative measures to meet the challenges that Ireland faces in making the transition to a low carbon economy.Ireland’s EU target for 2020 is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the non-Emissions Trading Scheme (non-ETS) sector by 20 per cent on 2005 levels. The non-ETS sector covers emissions from agriculture, transport, residential, commercial, non-energy intensive industry and waste sectors.
The latest projections show that:
Agriculture and transport are projected to account for 74 per cent of Ireland’s non-ETS sector emissions in 2020 (agriculture (45%), transport (29%)). For the period 2015-2020, agriculture emissions are projected to increase by 4 – 5 per cent. Transport emissions are projected to show strong growth over the period to 2020 with a 10 – 12 per cent increase on 2015 levels.New obligations for Ireland to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for the years 2021-2030 are expected to be agreed at EU level in 2017. The further away Ireland is from the 20 per cent reduction target in 2020, the more difficult the compliance challenges in the following decade are likely to become.
Commenting on the figures, Laura Burke, EPA Director General, said,
“The EPA’s latest greenhouse gas projections are a disappointing indicator that the current range of policy measures to reduce emissions and to meet compliance obligations are failing in an improving economy. “In addition, Ireland has a national policy position that commits us to reducing our carbon emissions by at least 80 per cent compared to 1990 levels by 2050 across the electricity generation, built environment and transport sectors while achieving carbon neutrality in the agriculture and land use sectors.“If we are to realise this policy position and our aspirations to transition to a low carbon economy, then any new measures to be included in the upcoming and future National Mitigation plans need to be innovative and effective to get Irelands emissions back on a sustainable trajectory. This will take planning, investment and time but can be achieved in the overall framework of national, EU and global commitments.”
Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections 2016 to 2035 is available on the EPA website.
See full detail on these figures in the EPA web published report Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections 2016 to 2035.
Notes:
EU greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and reduction obligations for Ireland are split into two broad categories. The first category covers the large energy and power (i.e. energy intensive) industry which have their emissions controlled under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. The second category (which is the main subject of the press release) deals with the non-Emissions Trading Scheme sectors such as agriculture, transport, residential, commercial, waste and non-energy intensive industry. The EU’s Effort Sharing Decision (Decision No 406/2009/EC) sets targets for the non-Emissions Trading Scheme sector for EU Member States including Ireland for 2020.
The Environmental Protection Agency produces greenhouse gas emission projections on an annual basis for all sectors of the economy in collaboration with relevant State and other bodies. The following are key underlying data that underpin this year’s greenhouse gas emission projections:
Ireland’s 2020 target is to achieve a 20% reduction of non-Emissions Trading Scheme sector emissions on 2005 levels with annual binding limits set for each year over the period 2013-2020. For 2017 projections, the Environmental Protection Agency is using legislative limits (for the period 2013-2016) and estimated annual limits (for the period 2017-2020) in anticipation of possible changes to legislative limits arising from methodological changes underpinning greenhouse gas emission inventories.
To determine compliance under the EU Effort Sharing Decision (Decision No 406/2009/EC), any overachievement of the binding emission limit in a particular year can be banked and used towards compliance in a future year. For example, if non-Emissions Trading Scheme sector emissions for 2013 are below the annual binding limit, the difference can be used towards compliance in subsequent years.
Greenhouse gas emissions are projected to the year 2035 using two scenarios:
An overview of total projected emissions by sectors (which include ETS and non-ETS emissions) under the With Additional Measures is presented in Table 1 and Figure 1.
Table 1. Projected greenhouse gas emissions to 2030 under the With Additional Measures Scenario
Growth
2016-2030
Figure 1 Projected sectoral share of total greenhouse gas emissions (including ETS and non ETS emissions) in 2030 in the With Additional Measures scenario
More trend figures and tables available in the report on the EPA website.
Units: 1 Mt = 1,000 kilotonnes
CO2 Equivalent: greenhouse gases other than CO2 (i.e. methane, nitrous oxide and so-called F-gases) may be converted to CO2 equivalent using their global warming potentials.
F-gases: These gases comprise HFCs (Hydrofluorocarbons), PFCs (Perfluorocarbons), SF6 (Sulphur Hexafluoride) and NF3 (Nitrogen Trifluoride). They are much more potent than the naturally occurring greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide).
Ireland’s GHG Sectors: include the following nine sectors for analysis;