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Project title

Isotopic Tracing of Atmospheric Rivers and Irish Storm Extremes

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

Met Eireann

Lead Organisation

University of Dublin, Trinity College (TCD)

Lead Applicant

Pete Akers

Project Abstract

Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of intense atmospheric moisture transport that fuel extreme precipitation events, destructive flooding, and powerful storms. Global climate models suggest that anthropogenic climate change will strengthen atmospheric rivers in the future, but despite this threat, relatively limited research has been published on Irish-impacting atmospheric river events. Project ISO-TAISE will work to address this oversight with a four-year program dedicated to improving our understanding of Irish atmospheric rivers through stable isotopic monitoring and synoptic climate reanalysis. Through four work packages, ISO-TAISE will markedly advance Irish climate science through the production and open access publishing of isotopic climate data collected at resolutions unprecedented for Ireland. In the first work package, a state of the art laser isotope spectrometer will be installed to continuously analyse ambient water vapor in Dublin for the full project duration. The resulting dataset will offer 5 isotopic parameters (including the rare 17O and 17O-excess) at resolutions as fine as 5 min. Next, a review of severe atmospheric rivers affecting Ireland from 1981-2019 will identify their moisture sourcing and transport through Irish and European reanalysis climate data in order to link historical climatology of atmospheric rivers to climate projection output. The third work package complements the first by providing isotopic composition records of ~daily precipitation samples and weekly River Dodder samples from near the water vapor monitoring station. These samples, analysed on a second laser spectrometer dedicated to liquid water isotope analysis, will allow the creation of an isotopic climatology for Dublin and Ireland focused on three components of the water cycle (atmospheric water vapor, precipitation, and stream flow). For the ambitious fourth work package, the second spectrometer will be deployed in the field directly in the path of an intense atmospheric river making landfall in Ireland. This deployment will be made 1-2 days prior to a forecasted landfall, and the spectrometer will be used in conjunction with precipitation sampling to capture the full isotopic evolution of an atmospheric river in both water vapor and precipitation. This isotopic case study will provide valuable insight to meteorologists around the world regarding the moisture transport and cloud microphysics occurring during atmospheric river passage. Finally, to fully translate the findings of ISO-TAISE into climate change impact, the project will produce a policy advisement document targeting policymakers that highlights actionable items learned about present and future atmospheric river risk from ISO-TAISE.

Grant Approved

�549,667.20

Research Hub

Climate Change

Research Theme

Advancing Climate Science for Ireland

Start Date

01/03/2024

Initial Projected Completion Date

29/02/2028