EPA Projections show Ireland remains off track for 2030 Climate
Date released: May 26, 2026
• Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions could achieve a reduction of up to 25% by 2030, compared to a national target of 51%, with full implementation of a wide range of policies and plans across all sectors.
• Ireland will be close to meeting the first carbon budget, but nearly all sectors are on track to exceed their sectoral emissions ceilings for the second carbon budget by 2030.
• Ireland is projected to exceed its EU Effort Sharing Regulation target of 42% reduction by 2030. EPA projects a maximum reduction of 23%.
• With less than four years left to 2030, there must be a strong focus on implementation of policies and measures to meet climate targets which will deliver wide-ranging benefits from environmental protection, supporting public health and wellbeing and reducing Ireland’s dependence on fossil fuels.
27th May 2026: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has today published its greenhouse gas emissions projections for the period 2025-2055.
EPA analysis shows that Ireland’s planned climate policies and measures could deliver reductions of up to 25% of emissions by 2030, compared to 2018 levels. Assessment of the latest information provided by Governmental bodies and sector representatives indicates that the gap to target is widening in some sectors of the economy, while narrowing in others.
Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions are projected to be close to meeting the first Carbon Budget (2021-2025) of 295 Mt CO2eq. The second budget is projected to be exceeded by a significant margin of 53 to 82 Mt CO2eq.
Transport, Industry and the Buildings (Commercial and Public) sectors are projected to be the furthest from achieving their sectoral emission ceilings in 2030. Agriculture emissions are projected to reduce by up to 19%.
Dr Eimear Cotter, EPA Director General, said:
“The EPA’s projections show that the current rate of delivery of the Climate Action Plan and associated policies could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25% by 2030 – only half of the reductions needed. While greenhouse gas emissions are declining, European and national emission reduction targets are projected to be missed. There must be a renewed focus on delivering the actions to meet Ireland’s climate targets which will be a significant challenge given the short timeframe to 2030.”
Dr Cotter added:
“Meeting these targets will deliver multiple benefits. These include reducing Ireland’s reliance on fossil fuels in electricity, transport and heating and strengthening national energy security and resilience. Achieving these emission reductions will also improve public health, provide green employment and protect our environment. Overall, these trends demonstrate that progress is achievable but accelerating delivery is critical. Renewable energy is now expected to provide nearly 60% of Ireland’s electricity by 2030. It is imperative given the increasing demand for electricity across several sectors, that renewables are delivered at the pace and scale required to meet this demand.”
Agriculture
Depending on the level of implementation of measures outlined in Government policies and plans, total emissions from the Agriculture sector will decrease between 4% and 19% over the period of 2018 to 2030. Changes in nitrogen fertiliser usage, switching to different fertilisers and lower anticipated livestock numbers contribute to projected emissions savings. A direct comparison of the Agriculture sector against its absolute Sectoral Emission Ceiling is no longer possible given recent scientific updates to baseline historical agriculture emissions.
Transport
Emissions from Transport are projected to reduce by up to 28% over the period 2018 to 2030, if the measures set out in plans and policies are implemented. These include at least 751,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030, increased biofuel blend rates and measures to support more sustainable transport.
Residential Emissions
Emissions from fuel combustion for home and hot water heating are projected to decrease by up to 18% by 2030. Lower uptake of home energy improvement measures, including planned heat pump installation in existing dwellings, has lowered predictions for emissions savings by 2030.
Industry
Fuel combustion in manufacturing is the primary source of emissions in this sector; emissions from mineral, chemical and metal industries contribute the next largest portion. Emissions from this sector are projected to reduce by 12% over the period 2018 to 2030.
Energy
Continued rollout of renewable electricity generation to provide 52% - 59% of Ireland’s electricity by 2030 as well as increased importation of electricity from interconnectors, are contributing to reductions in Ireland’s emissions. However, delayed delivery of planned renewable energy projects such as offshore wind have lowered potential emissions savings by 2030.
Land use
Emissions from this sector are projected to increase between 4% to 72% over the period of 2018 to 2030 as Irish forestry reaches harvesting age, and shifts from being a carbon sink to a source of emissions. Planned policies and measures for the sector, such as increased afforestation, water table management on agricultural organic soils and peatland rehabilitation are projected to reduce the extent of the emissions increase.
Commenting, Dr Conor Quinlan, Programme Manager said:
“The shortfall to our 2030 targets is narrowing in some sectors, for example emissions in the Transport sector are now projected to reduce by up to 28%. Encouragingly, projections for electric vehicle uptake has improved, reflecting growing confidence in the transition to cleaner transport, In contrast, the gap is widening in others such as the Residential sector which is projected now to reduce by up to 18%. It is imperative that ambition and action is maintained across all sectors if we are to meet our targets and realise the benefits of decarbonisation for our society.”
For further detail on these figures, see the EPA report Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections 2025 to 2055 and EPA Greenhouse Gas web resource on the EPA website.
Further information: Niamh Hatchell, EPA Media Relations Office 053-9170770 (24 hours) or media@epa.ie
Notes to Editor
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is the national body with responsibility to develop, prepare and publish projections of greenhouse gas emissions for Ireland. The EPA produces national greenhouse gas emission projections on an annual basis. These projections are compiled in accordance with, and to meet, EU reporting obligations. At a national level this report informs policy and monitors and reports Ireland’s climate action performance to Government under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act (Amendment) 2021 and to the public as outlined in Climate Action Plans.
It is an obligation under the Climate Act that, where the total greenhouse gas emissions for a preceding budget period exceed the carbon budget for that period, the excess greenhouse gas emissions from the preceding budget period is carried forward to the next period. The carbon budget for the next period is then decreased by the amount carried forward.
The EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Emission projection is an estimate of what emission levels are likely to be in the future if planned measures are implemented at a given level. They are based on key assumptions such as economic growth, fuel prices and Government policy.
The Environmental Protection Agency produces greenhouse gas emissions projections on an annual basis for all sectors of the economy in collaboration with relevant State and other bodies. This is the fifth set of projections prepared following the enactment of the Climate Act and the 51% target contained therein. The policies and measures contained in government policies such as the Climate Action Plans are assessed and included in the projections at a representative level based on the latest information available. Further information on the policies and measures included and exceptions is available on the EPA website.
Emissions reported in the latest GHG inventory (1990-2024) are lower, which results in a lower base year from which this year’s GHG projections (2025-2055) are estimated.
All methodologies are detailed in Ireland's National Inventory Document 2026 and summarised in Ireland's Final Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2024 report.
EU Targets
EU greenhouse gas emission targets and reduction obligations for Ireland are split into two broad categories. The first category covers the large energy and power (i.e. energy intensive) industry which are controlled under the EU Emissions Trading System. The second category deals with the non- EU Emissions Trading System sectors such as agriculture, transport, residential, commercial, waste and non-energy intensive industry.
On 14th May 2018, the European Council adopted a regulation (EU 2018/842 – the Effort Sharing Regulation) on greenhouse gas emission reductions. The regulation sets out binding emission reduction targets for member states in sectors falling outside the scope of the EU emissions trading system for the period 2021-2030. In April 2023 the Effort Sharing Regulation was amended (EU 2023/857) and Ireland’s new 2030 target under the Effort Sharing Regulation is to limit its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 42% by 2030.
Annual emission limits out to 2025 for the 42% reduction were set by the EU in 2023, with set limits out to 2030 awaiting to be ratified. Under the Effort Sharing Regulation two flexibilities may be utilised to allow for a fair and cost-efficient achievement of the target. These flexibilities are the use of EU Emissions Trading System allowances and credit from action undertaken in the Land use, Land use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector.
Flexibilities under the Effort Sharing Regulation include the allowance by eligible Member States to achieve their national targets by covering some emissions with EU ETS allowances which would normally have been auctioned. EU-wide, this cannot be more than a combined total of 100 million tonnes CO2 over the period 2021-2030. The ETS flexibility allows Ireland to transfer emissions of up to 4% of 2005 levels per annum, or 19.1 Mt CO2 eq from the non-ETS to ETS sector, reducing the mitigation requirement in the non-ETS sector while cancelling the corresponding ETS allowances.
Also, to stimulate additional action in the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, Member States can use up to a combined (EU-wide) total of 262 million credits over the entire period 2021-2030 to comply with their national targets. The LULUCF flexibility allows for Ireland to account for greenhouse gas removals of up to 26.8 Mt CO2 eq over two compliance periods 2021-2025 and 2026-2030.
Scenarios Used
Greenhouse gas emissions are projected to the year 2055 using two scenarios:
- The With Existing Measures (WEM) scenario is a projection of future emissions based on the measures currently implemented and actions committed to by Government. To become part of the WEM scenario a policy or measure must be in place by the end of 2024 (the latest inventory year) and the projected emissions reduction is commensurate with assessment of the resources or legislation already in place or committed to Government Departments or Agencies.
- The With Additional Measures (WAM) scenario is a projection of future emissions based on implemented measures included in the WEM scenario plus additional planned measures that are under discussion (as per plans, programmes or other policy documents) and have a realistic chance of implementation in the future (e.g. by 2030). The WAM scenario is based on assessment of the measures in the latest Government plans at the time the projections were compiled (such as the Climate Action Plan) which have a realistic pathway in place for implementation.
Sectoral Ceiling for Agriculture
The Sectoral Emissions Ceiling for Agriculture is no longer aligned with the reduction target for the sector mainly due to the impact of updated science on methane emissions from non-dairy cattle and sheep to the Agricultural inventory in 2023. Consequently, emission estimates from the Agriculture sector were reduced by an average of 1.4 Mt CO2 eq per annum from 2018 making a direct comparison of emissions in the Agriculture sector against its Sectoral Emission Ceilings no longer viable.
The Climate Act provides for the revision of Carbon Budgets and Sectoral Emission Ceilings where “there are significant developments in scientific knowledge in relation to climate change”. The incorporation of updated science in the Agricultural inventory is a “significant development”, highlighting the need to revise the Carbon Budgets and Sectoral Emission Ceilings to support the National Climate objective of a 51% reduction by 2030.
The EPA’s refinement of the data underpinning agricultural emissions continues to strengthen the evidence base, resulting in more accurate and lower overall emissions estimates for the sector. It is important that this evidence is now used to update carbon budgets and sectoral ceilings so they fully and accurately reflect the latest science on greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland.