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Project title

A new Tropical cyclone Ocean-Coupled Potential Intensity Model for West Indies (TOPIM)

Primary Funding Agency

Department of Foreign Affairs

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

Lead Organisation

Maynooth University

Lead Applicant

Not listed

Project Abstract

At time of writing tropical cyclone Fiona is transiting across the Caribbean, impacting several Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and leading to a fatality in Guadaloupe. As the storm approaches Bermuda, a model, TOPIM, co-developed by Dr Hallam and partner Dr Guishard has delivered predictions of potential intensity of hurricane Fiona. The outputs of this model will be considered alongside standard weather prediction models by the Bermuda Weather Service, to assess response to the impending hurricane. The advance of the TOPIM model is to leverage subsurface ocean temperatures from gliders, Argo floats, or ship stations near Bermuda to improve the prediction of tropical cyclone potential intensity, in near-realtime, using only desktop computing requirements. This project will co-develop the TOPIM model for the wider Caribbean in partnership with the University of the West Indies, which represents 17 Caribbean nations including 8 ODA SIDS, and deliver a state-of-the-art model that can feed into weather and climate adaptation. TOPIM is an ocean-coupled dynamical and statistical model for tropical cyclone intensity prediction that already has proof of concept, working operationally for Bermuda in 2021 and 2022. Results have shown the resulting prediction better forecasts actual tropical cyclone intensity than models using sea surface temperature alone. This project, taking the same co-development approach with partners in the University of the West Indies, will take account of the local wind/ pressure relationship and ocean depth which provides the most accurate predictor of hurricane intensity in the West Indies region. TOPIM will provide the West Indies with a local operational tool to assist their hurricane intensity predictions and assist with local preparedness. In addition, by the end of the project the West Indies will have an indication of the future threat of tropical cyclones in the region.

Grant Approved

�149,916.00

Research Hub

Climate Change

Research Theme

3. Climate Solutions, Transition Management and Opportunities

Start Date

01/10/2023

Initial Projected Completion Date

31/03/2025