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Project title

Impacts of climate change on groundwater ecosystems using analytical models and machine learning approaches

Primary Funding Agency

Geological Survey Ireland

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

Lead Organisation

University College Dublin (UCD)

Lead Applicant

Not listed

Project Abstract

Despite offering multiple services, including nutrient cycling, water storage and transmission, and pathogen elimination, the ground surface ecosystems have drawn less attention when compared to other aquatic ecosystems. The microorganisms in the groundwater are directly linked to many of these valuable ecosystem services. Although groundwater ecosystems are located beneath the ground, frequent contaminations, changes in temperature regimes, and recharge patterns impact the organisms that live there and the services they offer. Growing industrialization and synthetic chemicals pollute shallow and deep groundwater, while groundwater temperatures rise due to climate change. These threats would change the structure and functioning of groundwater ecosystems. However, the predictions for how climate change would directly affect groundwater systems are very uncertain. According to studies, a twofold increase in CO2 would cause extreme weather, causing temperatures in warmer climate regions to rise by up to 4oC. This project (24 months Research Masters) aims toanalyze the potential hazards caused by groundwater contamination to the groundwater ecosystems at various locations in Ireland using the datasets available in Geological Survey Ireland (GSI) and EPA. Advanced machine learning (ML) models will be developed to predict groundwater quality parameters in Ireland by training and testing datasets of various robust ML algorithms (such as Gradient boosting decision trees, Random Forests, Artificial Neural Networks, and Support Vector Machines) using datasets available in GSI and other national resources, for example, Groundwater Protection Data and EPA reports on groundwater quality. Predictions of developed ML models will be compared to values of existing datasets (with statistical analysis) to derive the performance of ML models in estimating groundwater quality parameters. Relevant scholars, practitioners, local and national policymakers will find the results of this study useful for decision-making and planning better groundwater management in this region.

Grant Approved

�92,400.00

Research Hub

Climate Change

Research Theme

2. Ireland's Future Climate, its Impacts, and Adaptation Options

Start Date

01/01/2024

Initial Projected Completion Date

31/12/2026