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Project title

Air pollutant Evolution and Regulatory Outcomes through TRend EvaluatioN and Diagnostics

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

Met Eireann

Lead Organisation

University of Galway

Lead Applicant

Vaios Moschos

Project Abstract

AEROTREND (Air pollutant Evolution and Regulatory Outcomes through TRend EvaluatioN and Diagnostics) is Ireland’s first nationwide project focused on integrating long-term observations of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) to assess air pollution trends and their links to both national emissions and transboundary sources. These climate-relevant pollutants, such as organic and black carbon, ozone, and methane, modulate climate change and contribute to air quality degradation, but their sources, spatio-temporal variability, and long-term evolution across Ireland remain insufficiently understood. The project will bring together high-resolution data from Ireland’s ground-based atmospheric monitoring stations at coastal and urban sites, including Mace Head, Valentia Observatory, Carnsore Point, and EPA network stations, with satellite data from missions such as TROPOMI and MODIS, and national emissions inventories. This multi-platform dataset will be used to evaluate how pollution levels and their sources have evolved over recent decades, considering both local emissions and transboundary transport from European and global regions. Using advanced statistical methods, including seasonal-trend decomposition and quantile regression, the project will detect long-term changes across the full distribution of pollutant levels (e.g., identify shifts in peak pollution events), and evaluate the impact of regulatory actions and climate variability. Source attribution will be performed using aerosol mass spectrometry and positive matrix factorization, combined with machine learning techniques to refine pollutant source classifications and back-trajectory analysis to determine the distant origins of long-range transported species. This tiered approach will help differentiate between marine, biogenic, domestic, and transboundary sources. AEROTREND will benchmark observational data against key atmospheric models, such as CAMS and EMEP, to assess model performance and identify inventory gaps. This model–measurement integration will enhance Ireland’s capacity to quantify and report climate-relevant air pollution trends, in line with obligations under the NEC Directive, UNFCCC, and the Global Climate Observing System, and improve confidence in predictive modelling. Project outputs will include open-access harmonized datasets, interactive visual tools, and policy briefs co-developed with stakeholders. Findings will directly support Ireland’s Clean Air Strategy, Climate Action Plan, compliance with the Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention, and national reporting commitments, while strengthening Ireland’s role in European air–climate research infrastructures such as ACTRIS and EMEP. By integrating in-situ, satellite, and model data, AEROTREND will deliver a scientifically robust, policy-relevant analysis of how air pollution in Ireland is evolving in a changing climate. It will help regulators understand the effectiveness of past measures and better plan for future action, while raising public awareness of the complex links between air pollution and climate.

Grant Approved

€329,954.71

Research Hub

Addressing Climate Change Evidence Needs

Research Theme

n/a

Start Date

31/03/2026

Initial Projected Completion Date

30/03/2028