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Project title

BIOeconomy INdicators for foreSIGHT

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

n/a

Lead Organisation

University of Galway

Lead Applicant

David Styles

Project Abstract

The overarching objective of BIO-INSIGHT is to translate state-of-the-art evaluation on the sustainability of promising bio-based value chains (BVCs) into meaningful and practical indicators that can guide decision making for sustainable bioeconomy deployment. Quantitative outputs from prospective, expanded boundary life cycle assessment (LCA) of BVCs undertaken using novel anaerobic digestion (AD) biorefinery and cascading wood use models will be entered into a BVC Database. Outputs will include temporally-explicit substitution effects and biogenic carbon storage, as well as incurred process burdens, to provide a complete estimate of the environmental performance of BVCs. Economic output, employment and investment indicators will supplement environmental indicators. The Database will underpin a new BVC Dashboard for stakeholders to explore the sustainability of prospective BVC configurations and deployment options, and a new modelling interface that will link scaled BVC deployment flow and emission timeseries with agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) flow and emissions timeseries to enable state-of-the-art integrated AFOLU-BVC modelling (Figure 1). Machine learning will be employed to demonstrate proof-of-concept multi-factor AFOLU-BVC optimisation during BIO-INSIGHT. This will provide a template for the FORESIGHT national climate modelling consortium to explore the “bioeconomy solution space” that delivers a national climate neutral, biodiverse & resilient economy (operating within planetary boundaries) Specific objectives are to: 1. Co-select with stakeholders a range of key performance indicators (KPIs) for sustainability that can be calculated or estimated from detailed mass flow and LCA data generated in recent studies using state-of-the-art biorefinery and cascading wood value chains. 2. Design, and enter the above data into, a BVC-KPI time series Database, supplemented with data from new case studies and systematic sensitivity analyses around critical determining factors. Database design will draw upon recent experience developing the OptiGOB database for AFOLU scenarios (Figure 1). 3. Engage with stakeholders to develop a BVC-KPI dashboard that provides actionable insight into the sustainability of different BVC configurations in future deployment contexts (levels of decarbonisation). 4. Develop a model interface to soft-link critical flows for BVCs with flows from the GOBLIN (AFOLU) biophysical model, to create state-of-the-art integrated AFOLU-BVC modelling capacity (Figure 1). 5. Apply machine learning to demonstrate proof-of-concept multi-attribute AFOLU-BVC optimisation. 6. Provide training support and protocols for ongoing use of the Dashboard. The Database, Dashboard and Interface will be maintained beyond the lifetime of BIO-INSIGHT by the FORESIGHT modelling group that supports national climate policy, hosted on an ICHEC (Irish Centre for High End Computing) server.

Grant Approved

€329,420.84

Research Hub

Facilitating a Green and Circular Economy

Research Theme

n/a

Start Date

01/03/2026

Initial Projected Completion Date

31/01/2028