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Project title

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Modelling Loss and Damage from Floods in sub-Saharan Africa

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

n/a

Lead Organisation

Taighde Eireann Research Ireland (UoG)

Lead Applicant

Simon Ngorok

Project Abstract

Floods are the most prevalent and devastating climate-related disaster and have a widespread impact, particularly on low- and middle-income countries. Annually, floods result in thousands of fatalities, millions of displacements, and tens of billions of dollars in damages to critical infrastructure and buildings essential for socio-economic development. Globally, between 2002 and 2021, there were an average of 168 flood events annually, leading to an estimated economic loss of US$ 41.6 billion. Lower-income households worldwide face a disproportionate risk of flooding, with increasing evidence showing that up to a third of the global population is directly exposed to 1-in-100-year floods. While climate change threatens to intensify these risks, the evidence base remains limited in these countries, which presents a significant challenge in evaluating the economic consequences of flooding. Therefore, this research, by using detailed localised and spatial data, firstly, will provide new data and insights into the localised costs of flood events and methodologically fits in the growing need for regional modelling approaches to assess the direct and indirect impacts of natural disasters, but not limited to flood events. Secondly, the research will highlight how exposure and vulnerability drive high or low flood-related costs across space and time. This will add a distinctive perspective to the extensive research on the influence of severe weather events on development outcomes and the reciprocal impact of development on costs resulting from extreme weather events, particularly in developing nations. Thirdly, by conducting an economic cost-attribution study, this research will enhance understanding of climate change's influence on floods and associated costs for specific extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. Lastly, this research will simulate future costs from flood events for different cities in SSA, addressing a critical gap in the current literature regarding detailed, localized costs of future extreme weather events under different climate scenarios.

Grant Approved

€68,000.00

Research Hub

Addressing Climate Change Evidence Needs

Research Theme

n/a

Start Date

01/09/2025

Initial Projected Completion Date

31/08/2027