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Project title

Estimating and Projecting Population Exposure to Extreme Sea Levels in Ireland

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

n/a

Lead Organisation

Maynooth University (MU)

Lead Applicant

Niamh Cahill

Project Abstract

Stressors associated with climate change, including sea-level rise and resulting extreme sea levels will have serious consequences for future human settlement patterns in coastal zones. Inherently, we understand exposure to extreme events can encourage decisions about population flow however, quantifying the link between the two at local levels is a challenge. The methods available to researchers typically have a focus on national-scale or regional populations and then assume all populations in those geographies are at equal risk. Therefore, development of population assessment methods that have more explicit spatiotemporal linkages with the local nature of extreme sea levels is clearly warranted and forms an integral part of understanding a population’s vulnerability to future sea-level rise. With this project will seek to understand how exposure to future rising sea levels and resulting extreme sea levels could impact population movement from smaller coastal areas and provide insight into possible future population movement patterns under different shared social socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. This work will aim to develop and bring together state-of-the-art approaches for small area population estimation and projection, analysis of sea-level extremes and modelling of migration flows and evaluate their applicability in varying exposure contexts and situations of differing data availability. Moreover, integrating climate projections and other demographic data into the analysis will allow for a more comprehensive assessment of potential future scenarios, considering both environmental and human factors. For instance, combining sea-level rise projections with extreme sea level distributions, population density maps and socio-economic indicators can provide insights into which communities are most at risk and what adaptive measures might be necessary. This holistic approach can support more targeted and effective adaptation strategies, helping to mitigate the adverse impacts of extreme sea-levels on vulnerable populations. By developing the approaches in case-study coastal areas in Ireland we will validate the methodologies, evaluate relevant insights and produce guidance and recommendations to advance the use of these approaches at a larger scale. While approaches to population exposure to sea level rise have been developed and reported in the literature, the core novelty of this project is taking state-of-the-art approaches and evaluating and developing them for operationalisation in a small area estimation context, with practical needs to the fore. Accounting for data limitations and biases as well as the use of non-traditional data sources will all be considered during model development. All models will be developed within a probabilistic framework to ensure that uncertainties can be appropriately quantified and communicated. In summary, by bridging the gap between environmental science and statistical demography we can offer a more detailed and accurate picture of how populations might be affected by future sea-level rise. By coupling advanced population dynamics with climate-induced extreme sea-level projections, researchers and policymakers can better anticipate and respond to the challenges posed by climate change in this context. This integrated approach is not only a scientific necessity but also a practical imperative for enhancing community resilience and sustainability in the face of future sea-level rise and extreme sea levels.

Grant Approved

519879.8

Research Hub

Addressing Climate Change Evidence Needs

Research Theme

Understanding vulnerabilities, risks and adaptation measures at the local level

Start Date

01/09/2025

Initial Projected Completion Date

31/08/2029