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Project title

Exploratory analysis of the effect of climate change on forest carbon stores in Ireland

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

n/a

Lead Organisation

University College Cork (UCC)

Lead Applicant

Roisin Moriarty

Project Abstract

This project focuses on identifying the main factors influencing emissions and removals on forest land in the context of climate change. The overall objective of the ENDURANCE project is to carry out an exploratory analysis of the effects of climate change on forest carbon stores in Ireland with the aim of identifying vulnerabilities and assessing how the vulnerability of forest carbon stores puts Ireland’s long-term climate targets and delivery of carbon budgets at risk. This will allow the examination of the risks of relying on terrestrial carbon stores for carbon dioxide removal (CDR). This project also aims to enhance collaboration to ensure valuable data resources are fully utilised to better understand the evolution of terrestrial carbon stores in Ireland in the face of climate change. A combination of literature review, data synthesis, modelling and sensitivity analysis will be used to carry out this research. Two models, PREBAS and SELFS will be used to determine the impact of climate change on forest carbon stores and quantify the impact of climate shocks. PREBAS is an open access, spatially explicit, process based forestry growth and ecosystem carbon balance model. It can be used to explore the dynamics of forest sinks under future climate change. SELFS is an integrated energy, food and land model. It is a powerful tool for analysing interactions across energy, food and land systems and evaluating pathways for decarbonisation and can be used to assess synergies and trade-offs between emissions reductions and CDR within the context of Ireland’s carbon budgets and long-term commitments under the Paris Agreement. The ambition behind the modelling component of this work is to enhance the capacity of the SELFS model so that it can replicate climate shocks. Abrupt changes are not a feature of integrated modelling, however threshold-based disturbances are important considerations when it comes to assessing the risk associated with the durability or permanence of forest carbon stores. This has implications for the delivery of long-term climate targets. The ambition behind the collaborative component propose is two-fold (1) bring expertise together to contribute to emerging challenges both at country and global level and (2) to create a consortium that can put together large scale projects proposals that can secure they type of fund necessary to bringing together the variety of expertise required. Targets for increased afforestation do not consider the effect that climate change may have on the carbon stored within these ecosystems. If mitigation targets rely on a stable or increasing forestry sink then a sensitivity analysis on the risks to the durability of forest carbon stores is necessary. Current policy, including the Climate Action Plan and carbon budgets framework do not have any contingency or carry out risk analysis to take consideration of such shocks. Moveover, the effects that climate change has on forests and their carbon stores is still emerging. Keywords: forest carbon sinks and stores, process-based modelling, climate change, climate shocks, spatial analysis, risk analysis

Grant Approved

€440,572.24

Research Hub

Addressing Climate Change Evidence Needs

Research Theme

n/a

Start Date

31/03/2026

Initial Projected Completion Date

30/03/2029