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Project title

High-Resolution Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Regional Climate Projections for Ireland

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

Marine Institute - Met Eireann - Office of Public Works (OPW)

Lead Organisation

National University of Ireland Galway (NUIG)

Lead Applicant

Paul Nolan

Project Abstract

The main component of the research involves simulating climate change and its oceanic impacts in Ireland (and Europe; CORDEX) at high-spatial resolution using coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The research will utilise the COAWST and HCLIM coupled systems to provide high-resolution (~4km) future climate projections (to 2100) of met-ocean conditions including near- and off-shore winds, wave, tides and sea level rise in Ireland. The future climate will be simulated by downscaling CMIP6 global datasets under the full range of ScenarioMIP �tier 1� RCPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 & SSP5-8.5. The novel approach of utilising coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave RCMs will enhance the current national RCM ensemble of atmosphere-only model predictions which do not provide direct information on sea level rise or changes in the ocean and wave climate. Furthermore, the coupled systems are expected to reduce the large uncertainty exhibited by the current RCM ensemble for fields such as precipitation, wind speeds and extreme storms and associated damaging winds thus allowing for a more comprehensive understanding of regional climate change. The research will provide policy makers and planners with high-resolution and robust projections of the offshore and onshore climate of Ireland and its impacts on mean sea level, storm surges and waves.

Grant Approved

�174,995.49

Research Hub

Climate Change

Research Theme

Ireland's Future Climate, its Impacts, and Adaptation Options

Start Date

06/01/2020

Initial Projected Completion Date

05/01/2022