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Project title

Investigating National Policy Impacts on Atmospheric Climate Targets

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

n/a

Lead Organisation

University of Galway

Lead Applicant

Liz Coleman

Project Abstract

The aim of this project is to assess the impact of historical policy interventions on atmospheric composition and subsequent radiative forcing attributable to greenhouse gases (GHGs), and to identify effective policy pathways to enable Ireland to meet climate targets and commitments. Perceived as a nation committed to sustainability and climate mitigation, Ireland’s ambitions to meet goals of Paris Agreement misalign with progress to-date in implementing required transformations. With Ireland’s underperformance in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction, there’s a need for an innovative and transformative approach to emission reduction to meet climate targets, and a need for design and implementation of effective policy. Evaluating the impact of future policy effects first requires an informed, integrated understanding of the impacts of historical policy changes on GHG emissions. This proposed project will bring together an expert team working across the disciplines of atmospheric science, economics and econometrics and data science. The team will survey historical national policy interventions spanning economic, agricultural and environmental policies since the 1990s. The policy impact will be evaluated in terms of successful implementation and achieving intended outcomes, and the effect of policy on GHG emissions and atmospheric composition will be evaluated by analsying national GHG inventories in context of policy changes, comparing nationally submitted emission inventories to top-down emissions determined using atmospheric GHG measurements and inverse models, identifying statistically significant changes in atmospheric GHG mecsurements attributable to national policy by applying advanced trend decomposition and timeseries analysis and evaluating the long-term changes in radiative flux due as a result of atmospheric composition changes Data streams used in above analysis will be harmonised and ingested into a dynamic data infrastructure that can retrieve, store, sort, manage, share the data, facilitating cloud-based analysis. The data will be represented on a public-facing accessible dashboard that will enable policy makers and interested parties to interact with historical data for on-the-fly analysis. The digital dashboard will be prototyped and presented to both project Steering Committee at project meetings, and members of the public at public engagement workshop, who will be engaged to reflect on historical policies and envision climate solutions. Both groups will test the dashboard and feedback on accessibility, intuitive use and informative value, informing adaptation and refinement of the dashboard. The integrated assessment of policy history, trend analysis of GHG emissions and atmospheric composition via in situ, satellite and reanalysis data will culminate in an accessible report that identifies the links between historical national policy and GHG emissions, whether the policies caused a reduction or increase of emissions and identify and quantify conflicts between various policy interventions. The report will analyse trends in atmospheric composition, radiative effects and markers of climate change since 1990, establishing the evidence base not only for impact of policy on GHG emissions, but on the ramifications for atmospheric composition and climate system. The report will form the basis of a succinct, actionable brief for policy makers to advise in formation of effective policy for emission reduction and climate mitigation.

Grant Approved

€330,221.75

Research Hub

Addressing Climate Change Evidence Needs

Research Theme

n/a

Start Date

02/03/2026

Initial Projected Completion Date

01/03/2029