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Project title

Predicting Chlorophyll-a Concentrations in Irish Lakes with Varied Eutrophication Levels Using an Innovative Hybrid Machine-Learning-Model

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

n/a

Lead Organisation

Irish Research Council (TU Dublin)

Lead Applicant

Tuan Nibras

Project Abstract

Recent occurrences of algal blooms in summer and autumn 2023 in Blessington Lake in Co Wicklow and Lough Neagh in Northern Ireland, along with the EPA's reporting on the decline in the ecosystem status of Irish lakes, underscore the pressing issue of eutrophication in Irish lakes. Eutrophication, a condition of excessive nutrient enrichment, profoundly disrupts aquatic ecosystems, adversely affecting water quality, biodiversity, and recreational activities. Therefore, it is imperative to address this issue. Among various contributing factors, agricultural runoff and urbanisation activities are the primary sources of nutrient loads that lead to eutrophication in these water bodies. Elevated levels of chlorophyll-a, an indicator of harmful algal blooms associated with eutrophication, necessitate the prediction of their concentrations to quantify algal blooms in impounded water bodies like lakes and reservoirs. The proposed research project aims to tackle the pressing issue of eutrophication in lakes by developing a new innovative tool to predict chlorophyll-a concentrations in these water bodies. This approach involves integrating in-situ water quality measurements, outputs from hydro-environmental modelling of pollutant transport, and remote sensing image processing to provide data for building a time series forecasting model using machine learning techniques. The expected result of this research is the development of an integrated predictive tool, ensuring precise and timely forecasts of chlorophyll-a levels in lakes. This tool will enable stakeholders to promptly implement measures, effectively mitigating the adverse impacts of eutrophication on both the environment and society. Moreover, it will play a pivotal role in managing and conserving freshwater ecosystems, upholding their delicate ecological equilibrium, and enriching the well-being of communities dependent on these invaluable resources. Additionally, the newly crafted chlorophyll-a prediction tool represents a groundbreaking advancement in lake eutrophication research, with the potential for widespread adaptation and implementation across diverse global regions.

Grant Approved

€124,000.00

Research Hub

Protecting and Restoring Our Natural Environment

Research Theme

n/a

Start Date

01/09/2024

Initial Projected Completion Date

31/08/2028