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Project Code [2024-CE-1261]
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Project title
Safeguarding Ireland's Energy Transition against Critical Materials Supply Disruption and Geopolitical Dynamics
Primary Funding Agency
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Co-Funding Organisation(s)
n/a
Lead Organisation
University College Cork (UCC)
Lead Applicant
Vahid Aryanpur
Project Abstract
Ireland is committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, necessitating a radical shift from fossil-based energy systems to a carbon-neutral future. This shift faces significant strategic global risks ranging from disruptions to the critical materials supply chain to vulnerabilities in geopolitical conflicts. Additionally, concerns about materials supply chains have grown due to fears of running out of materials amidst surging global demand for clean energy, increasing geopolitical competition for natural resources, and the disruptions associated with the pandemic and conflict in Ukraine. In other words, this transition to clean energy mitigates traditional energy security risks but introduces new risks regarding the availability and affordability of key technologies across the energy system, including power generation (wind turbines, solar panels, power grids), backup and storage (stationary batteries, H2 storage), end-use technologies (electric cars and trucks), biorefineries, and green hydrogen infrastructures. Over the multi-decade transition, global geopolitical dynamics and uncertainties in critical materials supply intertwine, posing significant threats to energy system resilience. To address these challenges, Ireland must effectively cope with cross-border energy security risks.
This project aims to develop an integrated energy-power system modelling framework to analyse the impacts of conventional and emerging energy security threats and potential strategies to mitigate their effects. These threats include cross-border shocks such as supply chain vulnerabilities, geopolitical tensions, and technological dependencies. An energy system model will explore the cost-effectiveness of potential solutions considering constrained fuel and technology availability. Subsequently, the operational viability of these solutions will be assessed using a high-resolution power system model. The project aims to foster a resilient energy system, tackle decarbonisation and affordability challenges, and enhance energy security.
The project comprises three main phases:
1. Qualitative analysis of the interactions between global risks and Ireland’s energy system.
2. Quantitative assessment of impacts and potential mitigation strategies.
3. Prioritisation of actions to ensure energy security, affordability, and environmental sustainability.
The developed method will be of strong interest to academia. A robust communication strategy is also considered to highlight resilience as a core pillar of Ireland’s energy transition, ensuring energy security and affordability among policymakers, industries, Irish citizens, and businesses. This strategy aims to help institutionalise a long-term balance between climate goals and practical considerations of security and affordability.
Grant Approved
€328,651.96
Research Hub
Addressing Climate Change Evidence Needs
Research Theme
Global Risks to Ireland Achieving its Climate and Environmental Goals
Initial Projected Completion Date
31/01/2027