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Project title

Weather Attribution Science Irish operaTional User Service

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

Met Eireann

Lead Organisation

Maynooth University (MU)

Lead Applicant

Peter Thorne

Project Abstract

The WASITUS project aims to provide a proof of concept for an operational event attribution service provision in Ireland while also contributing to global event attribution service provision. Using state-of-the-art methods and partnering with the well established World Weather Attribution team we will undertake both i) analyses of new national events of interest that arise during the grant period and ii) a retrospective analysis of selected historical events. The aim is to build a picture of how climate change is impacting the extreme weather and climate events that have profound implications for society and the economy. This can help drive more effective decision making to increase local, regional and national climate resilience moving forwards. The project will also aid more global analyses by the World Weather Attribution team and hence contribute to global understanding and high profile assessment activities such as the forthcoming 7th assessment cycle reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. If successful, the novel approach of funding nationally focussed teams, which when there is not an operational need can contribute to global analyses, would be transferable to other jurisdictions. This may eventually lead to e.g. a pan-european network of federated teams with a primary focus upon national service provision but contributing to analyses in other jurisdictions as resources permit leading to better national, european and global analysis capabilities which are less prone to a single point of failure. A novel aspect foreseen is taking advantage of the small size and open nature of Irish government and society to pursue in-depth understanding of the utility of the services and reports provided via stakeholder engagement with impacted communities and service users after each event. This feedback will be used to hone reports across the project lifetime to provide better, more actionable information, products and services. The lessons learnt will be shared with other operational attribution service providers to be able to improve more general service provision across the board. The overarching project aim will be to prove the value of such a service on a sustained basis nationally including the value proposition of playing our part globally. The project will provide a roadmap of one or more options for how it could be transitioned to an operational service for Ireland working with key agencies such as Met Eireann, EPA and the OPW and investigating novel funding mechanisms including philanthropic and industry support.

Grant Approved

€650,802.50

Research Hub

Addressing Climate Change Evidence Needs

Research Theme

Understanding vulnerabilities, risks and adaptation measures at the local level

Start Date

03/03/2025

Initial Projected Completion Date

02/03/2029