EPA Predicts Significant Challenges in Meeting 2030 Recycling Targets
Date released: May 07, 2026
- Waste Forecast models indicate our 2030 recycling targets for municipal and packaging wastes will be difficult to achieve without further policy interventions.
- Municipal waste generated by households and businesses is forecast to continue to grow, while recycling rates are forecast to remain largely stagnant.
- Recycling rate for packaging waste (such as cardboard, paper, plastics and glass) is forecast to improve modestly, but any gains are eroded by rising waste generation.
- Data estimates indicate our recycling targets for municipal and packaging waste for 2025 were missed.
8th May 2026: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has today published its waste forecasts providing a future outlook of waste generation and recycling trends for municipal and packaging wastes. The forecasting models provide estimates ahead of the availability of finalised statistics.
The forecasts indicate that waste generation is expected to continue to grow across municipal waste, from households and businesses and packaging waste streams. Recycling rates for municipal wastes are forecast to remain largely stagnant and lag behind the EU average. Packaging waste recycling rates are projected to increase modestly, however the increases are not expected to be sufficient to meet future targets.
Looking ahead, the 2030 targets appear challenging based on current waste generation and recycling trends. Reducing waste generation levels is critical, but increased recycling rates will also be needed.
To meet the 2030 municipal waste recycling target of 60 per cent will require an additional 500,000 tonnes of recycling, highlighting the scale of the challenge ahead.
David Flynn, Director of the EPA’s Office of Environmental Sustainability, said:
“While recycling rates for packaging are improving, these gains are eroded by continued growth in waste generation. The priority now is to implement policy measures in the Government’s Whole of Government Circular Economy Strategy, delivering the practical circular economy solutions to incentivise waste prevention and better material recovery along the full supply chain.’’
The EPA will continue to update and refine these forecasts as verified waste data becomes available.
Further information on the packaging waste forecasts is available on the EPA website.
Contact: Emily Williamson, EPA Media Relations Office, 053-9170770 (24 hours) or media@epa.ie.
Notes to editor
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for compiling, analysing and publishing official waste statistics for Ireland.
Reporting of measured waste data has a statutory reporting deadline of 18 months after the reference year. By June 2026, the data for multiple waste streams for reference year 2024 will be reported in full.
The EPA has forecast for recent years where official data is not yet available (2024 and 2025) and for the immediate future (2026 and 2027).
The forecasted figures are presented in Table 1.
| Municipal | Packaging | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Generation | Recycling | Year | Generation | Recycling |
| 2023 | 3,134,840 | 42% | 2023 | 1,185,195 | 59% |
| Forecasted Data | |||||
| 2024 | 3,110,993 | 41.1% | 2024 | 1,198,409 | 60.9% |
| 2025 | 3,150,083 | 41.6% | 2025 | 1,204,069 | 61.3% |
| 2026 | 3,209,937 | 42.1% | 2026 | 1,201,763 | 63.1% |
| 2027 | 1,199,763 | 63.1% | |||
| Targets | |||||
| 2025 | 55% | 2025 | 65% | ||
| 2030 | 60% | 2030 | 70% | ||
Forecasting uses models to estimate values complemented with a calculated degree of uncertainty. The outputs are indicative and are updated as measured data becomes available.
Forecasting accuracy is limited by the availability of historical data points and uncertainty increases significantly beyond a 3 – 4 year time horizon.
Forecasting models were selected based on performance, interpretability and expert assessment.
- A univariate ARIMA model was chosen for municipal waste generation and recycling rate.
- An ARIMAX model was chosen for packaging generation and an Integrated time series model for packaging recycling rate.
Municipal Waste: the waste we all produce every day in our homes, offices, businesses and schools. It includes household and non-household (commercial) waste.
Packaging Waste: Packaging comes with the products we buy for our homes and businesses. It protects them during transport, keeps them fresh and provides product information. Once the products are unpacked, the packaging become waste.
Recycling: means any recovery operation by which waste materials are reprocessed into products, materials or substances whether for the original or other purposes. It includes the reprocessing of organic material but does not include energy recovery and the reprocessing into materials that are to be used as fuels or for backfilling operations.
Forecast: a statement of what is likely to happen in the future.
Univariate ARIMA model: AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average model using a single variable.
ARIMAX model: AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with external variables model.
Integrated time series model: a type of statistical model used to analyse and forecast time‑ordered data.