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Project title

Development of a novel multi-scale hybrid flood forecasting model using the fuzzy modelling approach: An application on Irish catchments with diverse physical characteristics and climate conditions

Primary Funding Agency

Irish Research Council

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

n/a

Lead Organisation

Technological University Dublin (TUD)

Lead Applicant

n/a

Project Abstract

The issue of flood risk management has come into sharp focus following the major flood in the Shannon River catchment which took place in 2015/2016. In response to this flood the authorities in Ireland have established a new National Flood Forecast Warning Service (NFFWS) which gave priority to the process of building a national flood forecasting model. As part of this process, an in-depth literature review has been conducted and four candidate hydrological models have been identified. The current study proposes an innovative approach for combining these four candidate models in one integrated model using fuzzy modelling. The combination approach is based on the premise that each hydrological model has intrinsic strengths in modelling certain aspects of the catchment behaviour and combining them together will produce improved results better than the ones from the individual models. This modelling approach will suit catchments with diverse physical and climatic characteristics like the Irish catchments. The proposed study will also investigate the performance of the newly developed combined model at various catchment scales using the nested catchments approach which provides a scientific methodology for conducting systematic assessment to the performance of the examined model. Furthermore, the proposed study addresses the poor spatial coverage of the in situ data of climatic variables by using additional data from the recently launched Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) satellite-based precipitation. This will ensure adequate spatial coverage of the climate variables over the modelled catchment. The newly developed combined model will be tested in four catchments which selected from twelve catchments used in trialing the four candidate models in a study commissioned by Met �ireann. The four selected catchments will represent diverse physical characteristics and they will have long record of hydro-climatic data

Grant Approved

�110,000

Research Hub

Climate research

Research Theme

Being prepared for Ireland�s future climate.

Start Date

01/10/2021

Initial Projected Completion Date

30/09/2025