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Project title

Storylines for a Climate Resilient Ireland

Primary Funding Agency

Irish Research Council

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

Environmental Protection Agency

Lead Organisation

Maynooth University (MU)

Lead Applicant

Csaba Horvath

Project Abstract

The modelling chains typically employed to inform climate change adaptation are replete with uncertainties that can hamper decision making in building resilience to climate change. This is particularly the case for assessments of future drought impacts. In this research, the Storyline approach to informing adaptation is developed and evaluated. Storylines merge quantitative and qualitative information, co-produced with stakeholders, to develop descriptive storylines, narratives or tales of plausible future climates, grounded in the experience of past events. Emphasis is placed on understanding the physical drivers of past extreme events and using physically-based understanding to develop plausible stories as to how those drivers may change with climate change. When extreme events from the past are employed as the central frame for adaptation, both decision-makers and the public have a real sense of the impacts experienced and response employed. This connection to memory thus opens up opportunities for envisioning vulnerability, responses and explorations that define effective adaptation. Moreover, storyline approaches are not constrained by climate model projections and can leverage the information content of historical observations to inform decision making for the future. In this research the case study of drought risk, drawing on the recent droughts of summer 2018 and spring 2020 will be employed to showcase the strength of the storyline approach to water resource and drought planning in Ireland. The approach will be co-produced and evaluated by key stakeholders to ensure the credibility and salience of the method and to maximise integration into policy.

Grant Approved

�110,000.00

Research Hub

Climate Change

Research Theme

n/a

Start Date

01/09/2022

Initial Projected Completion Date

31/08/2026