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Project Code [2016-CCRP-MS.37]
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Project title
Tools for Climate Change Attribution of Extreme Weather Events
Primary Funding Agency
Environmental Protection Agency
Co-Funding Organisation(s)
n/a
Lead Organisation
University College Cork (UCC)
Lead Applicant
Paul Leahy
Project Abstract
One of the impacts of climate change which receives the most attention from the scientific community, the public, the media and policymakers is the change in magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfalls, droughts and heatwaves. Media reports frequently link extreme events to climate change, but until recently the scientific community was reluctant to attribute individual events or classes of events to climate change. However, climate modelling has now advanced to the point where probabilistic event risk �attribution studies� are possible, even in near-real time. This project will review methods and simulation datasets used to support climate change attribution studies. It will identify the best solution for extreme weather event attribution in the Irish context, assess for which classes of events attribution is possible with the tools available today, and apply it to case studies of specific past events with severe economic or social impacts, identified from a study of historic extreme events in Ireland. An end-to-end attribution study of a selected flood event will be made, coupling a hydrological model to a weather ensemble. Recommendations will be made on datasets, methods and tools for event attribution for Irish conditions.
Grant Approved
�241,919.53
Research Hub
Climate Change
Research Theme
Ireland's Future Climate, its Impacts, and Adaptation Options
Initial Projected Completion Date
02/01/2019