Ireland's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections 2019-2040

Summary: This report provides an updated assessment of Ireland’s total projected greenhouse gas emissions out to 2040 which includes an assessment of progress towards achieving its emission reduction targets out to 2020 and 2030 set under the EU Effort Sharing Decision (Decision No 406/2009/EU) and Effort Sharing Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2018/842).

Published: 2020

Pages: 32

 

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Key Findings

  • These projections show that full implementation of the 2019 Climate Action Plan will result in a reduction in Ireland’s total greenhouse gas emissions by up to 23% by 2030 compared to the most recent greenhouse gas inventory levels (2018).
  • Implementation of the “With Additional Measures” scenario” (including the impact of the 2019 Climate Action Plan) is projected to save 79 Mt CO2 eq over the period 2021-2030 compared to the “With Existing Measures” scenario. This represents an average annual reduction of 2.9% over the period.
  • Ireland is projected to meet non-ETS EU targets over the period 2021 to 2030. This assumes full implementation of the 2019 Climate Action Plan and the use of flexibilities in relation to land use, land use change and forestry . However, Ireland’s non-ETS emissions are projected to be only 2-4% below 2005 levels in 2020, compared to the EU target of 20%.
  • Full and early implementation of the 2019 Climate Action Plan is needed if the savings projected are to materialise. The scale and pace of the changes needed are significant, requiring much greater reliance on renewables, cross-cutting measures such as an €80 per tonne of CO2 carbon tax by 2030 and further ambitious measures in sectors such as transport, agriculture and power generation.
  • A 70% contribution of renewable energy in electricity generation by 2030 will be achieved by approximately tripling the 2018 renewable generation capacity, while phasing out coal and peat use. Increased renewables, and greater interconnection, are projected to result in energy industries emissions decreasing by over 34% by 2030 compared to the most recent figures in 2018.
  • Agriculture emissions are projected to continue to grow in the short term as the dairy herd expands. The 2019 Climate Action Plan envisages 16.5 Mt CO2 eq savings from agriculture over the period 2021-2030. To achieve these savings will require early implementation of measures such as the use of protected urea fertilisers, improved animal health and low emission slurry spreading. Including the impact of such measures will see emissions reduce by over 12% compared to the most recent figures in 2018.
  • Full uptake of key measures set out in the 2019 Climate Action Plan for the transport sector, including almost 1 million electric vehicles on Irish roads by 2030 and an increase in the use of biofuels, will lead to a reduction of 38% in emissions from this sector, compared to the most recent figures in 2018.
  • Measures outlined in the 2019 Climate Action Plan for the residential, commercial/ public services and manufacturing sectors includethe installation of over 600,000 heat pumps as well as much improved energy efficiency of Ireland’s building stock. Full implementation of the Climate Action Plan will see a reduction in emissions from the residential and commercial/public services sectors of 53% and 36% respectively compared to the most recent figures in 2018.
  • Work on the latest EPA emissions projections started in late 2019 and they are underpinned by strong projected growth in key sectors of the economy. The impact of Covid-19 is not included in these figures. This impact of the pandemic in terms of greenhouse gas emissions will be incorporated in the next round of projections.

On-Line Briefing 8th July 2020

Please find below the link to the EPA's YouTube channel where you can see the recordings of the presentations made during the on-line briefing on the 8th July 2020.

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFesobjWT1Fj_JgzWYmk8Y1j_pbEw3nE4