The National Climate Change Risk Assessment (NCCRA) identifies 115 risks and five potential opportunities due to projected changes in climate conditions. There are a total of 43 significant risks identified for Ireland.
Risks are categorised into nine different systems. These systems make up Ireland’s society and economy, capturing multiple societal and economic sectors.
Reports
The process to identify the risks and produce the outputs of the risk assessment are contained in four reports and an additional guidance document, along with some supplementary material:
The NCCRA Main Report [pdf] provides an overview of the methodology and findings, as well as recommendations to improve future climate risk assessments.
The NCCRA Technical Report [pdf] sets out the evidence base for the assessment and further detail on the risk assessment findings, including knowledge gaps for each system as well as qualitative descriptions of exposure, vulnerability, and consequence.
The EPA NCCRA Methodology [pdf] sets out the approach for the development and delivery of the NCCRA developed through an engagement process throughout 2024.
Technical Guidance for Sectoral Risk Assessments (2024) [pdf] has also been developed as part of the process to ensure consistency across national and sectoral planning. This guidance assists sectors in implementing climate change risk assessments that are consistent with the National Climate Change Risk Assessment Methodology.
NCCRA Cascading Risks Summary [xls] summarises the number of cascading effects of risks identified within the NCCRA in an excel sheet navigable by overview, system, and subsystem.
Our climate is changing
Ireland’s climate is changing in line with global trends. These changes are unprecedented, and it is now established fact that human activities are resulting in warming of our climate system.
Over the last century, Ireland’s climate is becoming warmer, patterns of precipitation are changing, and sea levels are rising. These changes in our average climate condition are also being reflected in changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events.
Projections indicate that changes to Ireland’s climate will continue and intensify, with far reaching consequences for Ireland’s environment, economy, and society.
Why assess climate risk?
Assessing climate risk is key to risk management and strategic planning. It helps government, businesses and communities understand and prepare for climate change impacts. Climate risk assessments provide a basis to identify and prioritise what actions need to be taken to adapt to climate change.
The EPA’s State of the Environment Report concludes that Ireland needs to deal with a range of existing environmental issues and risks including those associated with the energy transition, biodiversity loss, water quality, transition to a circular economy, harmful exposures to humans, and insufficient investment in infrastructure. The impacts of climate change are already affecting, or will begin to worsen, many of these issues as the century progresses. Understanding where, how, and when this is likely to happen is important if we want to manage these risks and build a truly sustainable society.
The EPA has led out on a National Climate Change Risk Assessment. This NCCRA sets out the priority impacts of climate change for Ireland which will provide a basis for making decisions on whether risks are acceptable to society or communities. This assessment can form the basis for determining how risks can be reduced and how potential opportunities can be realised.
This is a systematic semi-quantitative iterative risk assessment process that supports identification, assessment, and prioritisation of climate change risks that are underpinned by consistent climate information and accounts for uncertainty in climate projections.
Changing consequences
As the 21st century continues the likelihood of climate change risks rises. The consequence of each risk rises at different times and depend on the level of climate change. The NCCRA assessed this change through time for the priority risks, with the difference between the two scenarios become apparent by late-century.
The change in consequence through time for the 43 significant risks for the high emissions (RCP8.5) and moderate emissions (RCP4.5) scenarios.
Priority significant risks
Nine risks have been identified as priority significant risks. These are risks that will progress to critical risk levels by mid-century at the same time as needing a high level of decision urgency in the next five years.
The most significant risks for Ireland identified through the National Climate Change Risk Assessment based on timing of impact and level of consequence.
Cascading and compounding risks
The risks in the NCCRA would have direct impacts on the Irish system, but many of these risks would also trigger chain reactions of impacts in other parts of the Irish system. Most of the risks are interconnected and would impact other parts of the Irish society, ecosystem, and economy.
An example of the cascading impacts of a loss of electricity due to extreme wind.
