Greenhouse gas emissions projections provide a forecast of future emissions and are a valuable analytical tool to inform both how Ireland will comply with its Kyoto obligations and Ireland’s position in relation to 2020 targets.
The EPA develops national emission projections on an annual basis, in collaboration with relevant State and other bodies. This collaboration ensures consistency with economic forecasts and with projected activity in sectors including energy, agriculture, industry and forestry.
The National Climate Change Strategy (2007) designated the EPA with responsibility for developing national emission projections for greenhouse gases for all key sectors of the economy. Emissions projections serve to inform national policy initiatives, such as the Carbon Budget, and allow Ireland to comply with EU reporting obligations on projections (e.g. Council Decision 280/2004). The EPA publishes greenhouse gas emissions projections on an annual basis and submits emissions projections to the Commission as required under Council Decision 280/2004.
Projected emissions are classified into the following six IPCC sectors: Energy, Industrial Processes, Solvent and Other Product Use, Agriculture, Land-Use Land Change and Forestry Waste.
Two scenarios are generally produced showing a different outlook for emissions levels depending on policy development. The With Measures scenario includes exisiting and currently implemented policies and measures. The With Additional Measures scenario includes exisiting and planned policies and measures.
The latest greenhouse gas projections cover the time period 2009 -2020. A graph of the latest time series is shown below.
Further information on the latest greenhouse gas emission projections (published on 14th April 2011) can be found here.
The associated press release for the latest greenhouse gas emissions can be found here.
For further information please email EmissionsProjections@epa.ie or telephone (01) 268 0102.
