Latest emissions data

Note: These pages present final 1990-2021 Inventory data (updated April 2023) and the EPA's latest 2022-2030 projections estimates (updated June 2023)

Ireland’s latest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 1990-2021 are final figures based on the SEAI’s energy balance provided in October 2022.

In 2021, Ireland’s GHG emissions are estimated to be 62.11 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO₂eq), which is 5.2% higher (or 3.05 Mt CO₂ eq) than emissions in 2020 (59.06 Mt CO₂ eq). There was a decrease of 3.4% in emissions reported for 2020 compared to 2019. Emissions are 1.5% higher than pre-pandemic 2019 figures.

In 2021 national total emissions excluding Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) increased by 5.2%, emissions in the stationary ETS sector increased by 15.2% and emissions under the ESR (Effort Sharing Regulation) increased by 2.2%. When LULUCF is included, total national emissions increased by 5.1%. 

Increased emissions in 2021 compared to 2020 were observed in the largest sectors except for residential, waste and commercial and public services. These 4 sectors showed decreases in emissions (-6.0%, -3.0%, -2.0% and -3.4% respectively), shown highlighted green in the "Emissions change 2020-2021" table below.

Emissions per capita increased from an historic low of 11.9 tonnes CO₂eq/person in 2020 to 12.4 tonnes CO₂eq/person in 2021. Ireland’s average tonnes of GHG/capita over the last ten years were 12.8 tonnes. With recent CSO preliminary 2022 census data showing a population of 5.12 million people and with population projected to increase to 5.5 million in 2030, 5.9 million in 2040 and 6.2 million by 2050, per capita emissions need to reduce significantly. At current per capita emission levels, each addition 500,000 people would contribute an additional 6 million tonnes of CO₂eq annually.

Arresting growth in emissions is a challenge in the context of a growing economy but one which must continue to be addressed by households, business, farmers and communities if Ireland is to reap the benefits of a low-carbon economy.

Assessment of compliance

The greenhouse gas emission inventory for 2021 is the first of ten years over which compliance with targets set in the European Union’s Effort Sharing Regulation (EU 2018/842) will be assessed. This Regulation sets 2030 targets for emissions outside of the Emissions Trading Scheme (known as ESR emissions) and annual binding national limits for the period 2021-2030. Ireland’s target is to reduce ESR emissions by 30% by 2030 compared with 2005 levels, with a number of flexibilities available to assist in achieving this.

Ireland’s ESR emissions annual limit for 2021 is 43.48 Mt CO₂eq. Ireland’s 2021 greenhouse gas ESR emissions are 46.77 Mt CO₂eq, this is 3.29 Mt CO₂eq more than the annual limit for 2021. This value is the national total emissions less emissions generated by stationary combustion and aviation operators that are within the EU’s emissions trading scheme. This indicates that Ireland is not in compliance with its 2021 Effort Sharing Regulation annual limit, exceeding the allocation by 1.38 Mt CO₂eq after using the ETS flexibility. Agriculture and Transport accounted for 74.0% of total ESR emissions in 2021.

Ireland’s 2030 target under the EU’s Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) was to deliver a 30% reduction of emissions compared to 2005 levels by 2030. The ESR was amended in April 2023 and Ireland must now limit its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 42% by 2030. The ESR includes the sectors outside the scope of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) (such as Transport, Residential, Public Services and Commercial Services and Waste).  The latest projections (June 2023) indicate that currently implemented measures (With Existing Measures) will achieve a reduction of 10% on 2005 levels by 2030, significantly short of the 42% reduction target. If measures in the higher ambition (With Additional Measures) scenario are implemented, EPA projections show that Ireland can achieve a reduction of 30% by 2030, still short of the 42% reduction target. 

In terms of the 2030 targets, the ESR provides two flexibilities (use of ETS allowances and credit from action undertaken in the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector) to allow for a fair and cost-efficient achievement of the targets. The full LULUCF flexibility of 26.8 Mt CO₂ eq (theoretically available under the ESR) was adjusted to take into account new research that led to a revision to the emission factor associated with forestry on organic (peat) soils. This led to decreased removals/increased emissions associated with forest land for all periods, with an available LULUCF flexibility of 9.3 Mt CO₂ eq, significantly less than the theoretical flexibility available.