Assessment of EU Compliance

(Latest update May 2026)

Ireland's 2030 target under the EU's Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) is to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030 compared with 2005 levels. The latest EPA projections (May 2026) indicate that that currently implemented policies and measures under the With Existing Measures scenario will achieve a reduction of 13% on 2005 levels by 2030, significantly short of the 42% reduction target. If planned policies and measures in the higher ambition With Additional Measures scenario are implemented, EPA projections show that Ireland can achieve a reduction of 23% on 2005 levels by 2030, still short of the 42% reduction target. 

Targets for 2030 under the ESR include binding annual limits per Member State known as “Annual Emission Allocations” (AEAs) for the period 2021-2030. The AEAs were updated to reflect the 42% reduction target set in 2023. The official AEAs for the period 2021-2030 are published in Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2026/895 of 24 April 2026 amending Implementing Decision (EU) 2020/2126.

The ESR provides a number of flexibilities which Member States may use under certain circumstances to cover excess emissions over the period 2021-2030, supporting a fair and cost-efficient achievement of targets. Some Member States, including Ireland, can cancel a limited amount of ETS allowances and use an equivalent amount to cover excess emissions under the ESR. The ETS flexibility available to Ireland for 2021 to 2030 is a maximum of 19.1 Mt CO₂eq (or 1.9 Mt CO₂eq per annum).

The LULUCF Regulation establishes accounting requirements and rules around LULUCF flexibilities for two compliance phases, 2021-2025 and 2026-2030. For the first phase, each Member State must ensure that accounted emissions from land use are compensated by at least an equivalent amount of accounted removals (the “no debit” rule). If a Member State satisfies the “no debit” rule and has more accounted removals than accounted emissions, the surplus removals can be used as a flexibility to cover excess emissions under the ESR. Based on latest LULUCF inventory and projections data, Ireland could avail of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility available for the first phase, which is 13.4 Mt CO₂eq (or 2.68 Mt CO₂eq per annum). However, there is a significant degree of uncertainty associated with this amount given the ongoing updates of the LULUCF Inventory, driven by latest data and updated modelling of forestry emissions and removals.

For the second compliance phase 2026-2030, an even higher level of uncertainty applies as the availability of any flexibility is contingent on the EU collectively achieving its LULUCF target of a 310 Mt CO₂eq reduction by 2030. If that condition is met, then the revised second phase accounting approach will be used to determine what flexibility is available to Ireland for the 2026-2030 period. EPA projections indicate that no flexibility will be available to Ireland for phase 2.

EPA projections show that use of the EU-ETS flexibility alone will not bring Ireland into compliance under the ESR. When the ETS flexibility is applied on an annualised basis, projections indicate that Ireland will cumulatively exceed the ESR 2021-2030 emissions allocation by 23.1 Mt CO₂eq even with implementation of policies and measures in the WAM scenario and by 41.5 Mt CO₂eq with those in WEM. When both ETS and LULUCF flexibilities are applied, the projections still indicate that Ireland will cumulatively exceed the ESR 2021-2030 emissions allocation by 9.7 Mt CO₂eq even with full implementation of policies and measures in the WAM scenario and 28.1 Mt CO₂eq with those in WEM.

Ireland's National Policy Position

(Latest update May 2026)

In order to achieve Ireland's commitment to realising a climate neutral economy by 2050 the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021 provides for the establishment of carbon budgets as interim milestones on this trajectory. The 51% target is the primary constraint on carbon budgets over the course of the first two budget periods ending on 31 December 2030, relative to 2018 emissions.

Ireland’s Climate Act ambition of a 51% emissions reduction by 2030, including LULUCF (compared to 2018) is not projected to be achieved. The projections show that implemented policies and measures in the With Existing Measures (WEM) scenario can only deliver an 13% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to the 2018 level.  The WAM scenario, including policies and measures from Climate Action Plans, is projected to deliver a 25% emissions reduction over the same.